A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Both authors two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
